Town planning is going to have to
get to grips with a fundamental shift in the way we undertake and travel to
work in the foreseeable future. This will knock-on into how we will live and
play in the future and will significantly alter some of the long held planning
precepts that still colour today's economic development and infrastructure
initiatives.
The Government have given their
support to HS2 (High Speed 2) and a new London Airport remains on the table for
consideration. Both have naturally attracted considerable public comment - both
positive and negative - and in either case, the benefits are likely to be long
in gestation and delivery.
The first phase of HS2 linking
London with that distant provincial settlement of Birmingham is not likely to
receive its first fare paying passenger until 2026 and the track won’t reach
the northern wastes of Manchester for 21 years or so.
The business cases for each are
largely formulated on the basic premise of, "more of the same". The
economic justification reports highlight the extrapolation of past growth as a
justification of need. And what is more it's all about enabling speedier
business and economic growth. The fact that HS2 acknowledges the likelihood of
modal shift from plane and car does cause an eyebrow to be raised momentarily,
but perhaps this is inevitable.
We have a growing population,
with increasingly footloose aspirations for work and play, so it would seem
that such schemes are all to the good. Right?
I wonder.
21 years ago the height of modern
business practice would see your average office operating with electronic
typewriter/wordprocessors and fax machines. Top executives might have a
wired-in carphone and at the very upper limits possibly a ticket on Concorde.
The 'New York for Breakfast' meeting was the height of business sophistication
and apparent success. The colour of the travel tag on your hand luggage was
your mark of progress. Whilst telephone conferencing was emerging, in order to
run your business face to face meetings were still the norm, as they had been
for millennia.
But just look today at what has
happened with technology in that short period of time. The rapid and
revolutionary emergence of the Internet has led to a fundamental shift in the way
we do business.
Mobile and smartphones, tablets
and reliable video conferencing, skype-ing, texting, Google, working in the
Cloud and 24 hour around-the-world team operations are the norm. A year or so
back I was impressed knowing that I could dictate a report in the afternoon,
send it by email for formatting to a dedicated service in Australia overnight
and have it back in my inbox ready to go the following morning. Tame. I now
dictate straight into my PC using voice recognition software, print out as a
pdf and email in one seemless operation. I can work anywhere using my iPhone
and can access my client files in the Cloud without needing to lug them around.
The days of stupefyingly repetitive copying of documents for planning
applications has been replaced by the Planning Portal. The paperless office
finally begins to emerge.
Manufacturers can convene
meaningful real time meetings between teams with interactive video and online
graphical interfaces to discuss product development without needing to pour
over drawing boards (now replaced by CAD) or oily lathes and never leaving
their offices. 3D models of almost anything can be emailed around the world and
precisely reproduced in laser 'copiers'. Feature films are now regularly
produced between UK and Hollywood studios online. I'm sure there are lots of
exciting things about which I have no knowledge.
So if all this can occur in such
a short time period, just think how technology is going to evolve further over
the next 21 years. The question is, will we really need to travel for business
in the way that we used to, and secondly, is speed crucial?
From the standpoint of aviation
the equivalent to high speed trains would be a replacement Concorde. But
forgetting any environmental consideration for a moment, the market began to
feel that such speed was not essential. Cost effective, comfortable and
reliable business travel was the way ahead. For the rest, cheap, mass travel is
now the watchword. Why otherwise build the double-decked Airbus A380 or the
truly massive Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental. And with in-flight access to the
internet via WiFi an increasingly common
feature, why rush?
There is already clear evidence
of firms beginning to encourage employees to 'work from home' or from satellite
hubs using modern telecommunications to interact between employees. And this is
beginning to affect the demand for and structure of workspace. Hot-desking is
becoming the norm. Why spend a fortune commuting to an office an hour or more
away if you can work locally at a Co-working hub or from the kitchen table – if
only for part of the week. We don't even need to go down to the shops for our
purchases.
The students of today - the next
generation of employees and entrepreneurs - have a wholly different approach to
the way they interact with others. Much of their learning will have been
'online' with podcasted lectures and 'webinars'.
We are in a transitory phase so
the real impact of these technological advances have yet to hit home widely,
but rest assured a work revolution is evolving faster than we can imagine.
So I return to the point. Why do
we need to shave an hour off the travel time between Manchester and London? How
is this going to better enable business? Does a 30 minute time saving from
Birmingham REALLY help?
I can see that a European network
may have more credibility, given the distances. But in the UK?
Regularly travelling on the West
Coast line from Preston to London I can now do the journey in just over two
hours. Not bad really for 250 miles. If it were non-stop - as HS2 will be -
this would be even quicker. But I doubt it would pay me to travel into
Manchester first just to save an hour, which would be largely used up in
transfer times anyway. I might perhaps want to use it to get to Heathrow for an
overseas flight (if it were linked there), but Manchester already has a well connected
International airport.
Equally, HS2 wont be cheap; as
HS1 isn't. If I can put the ticket on business expenses then all well and good,
but as a tourist I would be happy to put up with an extra hour or so at an
off-peak time to save some money. Why otherwise do so many people use the
budget airlines in preference to the rapidly declining mainstream operators?
I could go on. But it seems to me
that technology developments and working practices in the future could well
negate the business case for ultra fast intercity travel. This is yesterday's
thinking. Yes, of course we all want to go places quickly and efficiently. But
should such travel 'luxury' be at the expense of the limited countryside
through which we will travel - not seeing much of it in any event. In aviation
the 'need for speed' era of Concorde (wonderful though it was) didn't last
long. And this at a time when 'being there' was still vital in business.
Lets not kid ourselves that HS2
is really vital for business. Certainly not based on the economic case that has
been presented to date. The money might be better spent properly enabling high
speed broadband in rural UK to achieve a meaningful, deliverable (and probably
faster) economic benefit.
Town planning is going to have to
get to grips with a fundamental shift in the way we undertake and travel to
work in the foreseeable future. This will knock-on into how we will live and
play and will significantly alter some of the long held planning precepts that
still colour today's economic development and infrastructure initiatives.
The future's bright. The future's
online.